Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary source in case of discrepancies with summary forecasts. August in Seoul typically brings peak summer heat, with historical daily highs regularly exceeding 30°C during this period.

Seoul's August climate reflects monsoon influence and urban heat island effects. The city has recorded temperatures above 35°C on multiple occasions during mid-August over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder market. Historical data from August 2023 showed Incheon reaching 32.5°C on the 12th; August 2022 peaked at 31.8°C on the same date. These precedents establish that sub-25°C outcomes would represent significant departures from seasonal norms, whilst readings above 33°C align with roughly one-in-three outcomes in recent years.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts issued in early August 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically releases 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau would drive sustained heat. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than summary highs—means traders should verify Wunderground's station data directly rather than relying on secondary weather services, as measurement timing and methodology differences can shift outcomes between temperature bands.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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