Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically sits at the tail end of the monsoon season, with daily highs frequently exceeding 30°C. August 11th falls within the period when the Korean peninsula experiences peak summer heat, though afternoon thunderstorms can occasionally suppress maximum temperatures. Historical records from Incheon International Airport Station show August highs ranging from 28°C to 35°C over the past two decades, with the station's measurement protocols standardised across the observation window.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range the market has defined. August in Seoul rarely produces temperatures below 28°C or above 36°C at the airport station, making edge cases at either extreme unlikely. The resolution mechanism's reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency—discrepancies between the two sources have historically favoured the granular data, which typically records slightly higher peaks during afternoon hours.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding typhoon activity or unusual pressure systems that could suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on August 11th, creating a tight window for final observations. Recent patterns suggest mid-range temperatures (31–33°C) remain most probable, though the market's current pricing indicates limited conviction across all outcome bands.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.