Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s hottest spell in August is often shaped by a mix of monsoon humidity and short-lived heat surges, so the relevant question here is whether Incheon Airport’s daily maximum lands in the low 30s or gets pushed higher by a late-day warm-up. Seasonal references put Seoul’s August average high around 30°C, with some years reaching 33–34°C, which makes a sub-30°C outcome unusual but a 30–34°C band still the baseline to watch.[2][8][10] Recent history also shows that the broader capital region can still register very warm afternoons even after a cooler start to the day, so the crowd’s 0% YES pricing implies either a missed data nuance or a strong expectation of a benign reading rather than an actual climatological impossibility.[1][8]

For traders, the decisive catalysts are the airport’s hour-by-hour observations through the settlement window and any shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or sea-breeze flow that caps the afternoon high. Weather Underground’s own history pages show Seoul can move from the high 70s °F at midnight to a much hotter daytime peak, and the market rules make the “Daily Observations” table the only source that matters if the summary line differs.[6] The main dependency is whether a brief rain band or thicker cloud deck limits insolation around the warmest part of the day; if the diurnal peak arrives cleanly under clear or partly cloudy skies, the upper temperature bands become materially more live.[2][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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