Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record its peak daily temperature for 16 July 2026 within the moderate summer band typical of the Pacific Northwest. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any YES outcome, reflecting a market consensus that extreme heat is unlikely given the region’s prevailing maritime climate and recent seasonal patterns.

Historical July data for Seattle shows average daytime highs reaching 26°C (79°F), with only rare spikes above 32°C (90°F) [2]. A comparable market for 13 July 2026 already settled with 78–79°F as the 100% frontrunner, reinforcing the expectation that mid-July peaks in this range are standard rather than anomalous [1]. This consistency across adjacent dates suggests the 0% probability is well-calibrated to climatic norms.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for KSEA on 16 July, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded temperature for that station [source: market description]. No weather catalysts such as heat domes or wildfire smoke have been forecast for mid-July 2026 in Washington, reducing upside volatility [2]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, real-time temperature logs will be the sole determinant of resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.