Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature on 9 August is a late-summer heat call, but the key context is the airport reading rather than the city headline. Weather Underground’s Sea-Tac station has a long August history of warm, but usually not extreme, afternoons, with the monthly record for 9 August at 99°F and the long-run August average around the high 70s, which is why a 0% price on a very low outcome is consistent with the climatology rather than a one-off signal.[3][4][13]

The recent comparison point is the observed 9 August 2026 temperature path: AccuWeather’s daily figures showed Seattle running around 76°F for the day, while a historic weather feed showed an afternoon peak near 77°F and the Polymarket event page cited a National Weather Service observation of a 77°F daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport under mostly sunny skies and light onshore flow.[1][2][7][12] That places the market in the middle of the late-summer distribution, far below the 1981 and 1960 August 9 records, and makes the pricing look like it is anchored to a fairly ordinary warm day rather than an escalation into record territory.[3][17]

For traders, the important catalysts are the final Sea-Tac observations published in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table and whether any later-dated data points appear, because the contract resolves on the highest recorded temperature in that table, not the summary high/low box.[7][11] Revisions before the first datapoint for the following day can still matter, so the operational watchpoint is the completion of the 9 August observation set rather than any forecast update, with the last-hour afternoon reading usually the most important if the day is flirting with a new bracket.[7][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.