Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport reached a high in the low 80s Fahrenheit on 4 August, so the market has effectively resolved around a warm but not exceptional summer day for the station. AccuWeather’s August history shows an actual high of 81°F for Seattle on 4 August, while the market description points to Weather Underground data at KSEA as the settlement source, which is the key figure traders will continue to anchor to.[1][4]

The current 0% YES implied probability is hard to reconcile with the broader August climate in Seattle, where average highs are typically in the upper 70s and warm spells into the low 80s are common, making an 80–81°F print materially more plausible than an outlier cold day.[8][13] Comparable forecast and market pages also point to an 80–81°F range as the leading expectation for the date, suggesting that the crowd has already priced in the usual late-summer warmth rather than a surprise heat or cool deviation.[2][3]

The main catalysts for any late move are not sporting-style line-up changes, but the final Weather Underground observation at KSEA, any station-data revision before the next day’s first datapoint is published, and the possibility of a late afternoon breeze, marine layer, or convective shower altering the day’s peak reading. The market rules state that revisions inside the settlement window count until the first datapoint for the following date appears, so traders are watching for the official daily high rather than hourly volatility.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.