Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s temperature on 10 August is settling into the market through a fairly ordinary late-summer setup rather than a heatwave. The historical frame is clear enough: Seattle’s August 10 record high is 98°F, set in 1981, while the long-run average high for that date is about 77.5°F, so the upper end of the range still requires a meaningful overshoot of climatology.[4][17] Contemporary market pricing is also pointing to a middling outcome, with the leading Polymarket band at 74–75°F and only a small tail assigned to very warm readings.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual airport observations rather than broad-city forecasts, because this market resolves from the Weather Underground Daily Observations table for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.[14] That matters if the afternoon peak lands briefly above the headline daily high and low summary, or if timing around the settlement window cuts off late-day warmth. Forecast services have been clustered around the mid-70s for 10 August, including AccuWeather and Time and Date, which both imply limited room for a late surge unless local conditions diverge from model guidance.[11][18] In practical terms, the line is most sensitive to whether the airport manages a short-lived warm-up into the upper 70s or stays pinned close to forecast highs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.