Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current market data shows a 98% probability that the peak will be 22°C, with 23°C trailing at just 1%[1]. This aligns closely with historical averages for July, São Paulo’s coolest month, where typical highs range from 11°C to 22°C[8]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for the region confirms daily highs between 66°F and 81°F (roughly 19°C to 27°C), with an average of 74°F (23°C)[3]. While recent extreme heat waves have hit Rio de Janeiro, with perceived temperatures reaching 62°C, São Paulo’s climate remains more temperate, rarely exceeding 29°C even in summer peaks[5]. The 0% YES probability for higher ranges reflects this consistent seasonal pattern rather than anomalous cold.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s official daily release for 9 July, which will confirm the exact peak temperature at the airport station[1]. Any sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or cloud cover over the preceding days could alter the outcome, though current forecasts suggest stable conditions. Recent news from DW highlights Brazil’s ongoing heat wave, but its impact has been concentrated in Rio, not São Paulo, reducing the likelihood of record-breaking highs in the city[5]. Watch for updates from local meteorological services regarding any unexpected warm air intrusions from the interior, which could push temperatures toward 23°C or higher. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, so timely data access is critical[1]. No major weather disruptions or suspensions are currently forecast for the region.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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