Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The San Francisco International Airport is recording its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with average maximum temperatures hovering near 67.6°F through mid-July, a stark deviation from the typical June warming trend where highs climb from 68°F to 71°F[6][3]. This persistent coolness, driven by Westerly winds at 18 mph and high humidity of 67%, explains the current 0% crowd-implied probability that the temperature will reach the 70–71°F range[2]. Historical climate normals for this date show a maximum of 73°F, yet the 2026 reality suggests a significant suppression of heat, making the upper threshold highly improbable given the current atmospheric conditions[9][10].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s Climatological Report for 30 June 2026, which will officially verify the maximum temperature and trigger market resolution[1]. The immediate catalyst is the potential for a sudden shift in the Westerly wind pattern or a drop in humidity, which could rapidly elevate temperatures, though current forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs ranging only from 67°F to 83°F with no immediate spike expected[7]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00:00Z on 30 June 2026, the focus remains on whether the persistent cool anomaly continues or if a late-season heatwave disrupts the established trend, a scenario currently unsupported by the data[1]. The 0% probability reflects the overwhelming evidence of this unusual cold spell, leaving little room for the temperature to breach the 70°F threshold under current conditions[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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