Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July heat is governed by its marine climate, where the Pacific typically caps daytime highs despite the region’s inland warmth. On 14 July 2026, the market currently prices the chance of any temperature outcome above the baseline at 0%, reflecting a near-certainty that the day will stay within the 78–79°F band. Historical data from the San Francisco International Airport Station shows that mid-July highs rarely breach 80°F, with the 78–79°F range capturing the majority of recent years’ peaks, making the 0% probability for higher outcomes a rational alignment with long-term patterns [1].

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system’s position and any incoming marine layer breaks, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures toward 80°F or higher. A sudden weakening of the coastal fog or an anomalous heat dome from the Central Valley could act as a swing factor, though such events are statistically rare in mid-July. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded high for KSFO, so any discrepancies in sensor calibration or reporting delays could introduce volatility, but the current 93% probability for 78–79°F suggests the market expects stable, typical conditions [1]. No recent weather alerts or official forecasts have indicated an extreme heat event, reinforcing the crowd’s confidence in the lower range.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.