Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport is tracking toward a cool mid-summer day, with the 5% YES probability on a high temperature exceeding the market’s top range reflecting the region’s persistent marine influence. July 13 falls within the warm season, which runs from mid-June to late October, yet SFO’s average daily high remains just above 69°F, rarely breaching 75°F without a strong inland heat pulse [3]. Historical data shows the airport’s record high for any July date is 88°F, set in 1983, while the all-time record of 103°F occurred in September 1971, underscoring how extreme heat is exceptionally rare in this coastal microclimate [7][6].

The current 5% probability aligns with SFO’s coldest first half of summer since 1965, where average maximums through July 15 were only 67.6°F, suggesting a continued trend of suppressed temperatures [4]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for any sudden shift in wind patterns, as a collapse in the marine layer or an offshore flow event could rapidly elevate temperatures. The 2026 July forecast projects highs between 67°F and 79°F, meaning a breach above 79°F would require an anomalous atmospheric river or heat dome not typical for this date [1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but real-time updates from Wunderground—the official resolution source—will be critical once the day begins [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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