Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July heat is typically muted by coastal marine influence, with the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) averaging a high of 73°F in July. Historical data shows standard deviations of 4–6°F around a 69–72°F mean, meaning extreme spikes are rare but not impossible [2][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome appears misaligned with this volatility; similar markets for July 9 and July 13 show leading outcomes in the 68–79°F range, with July 13 even favouring 78–79°F at 50% [1][3][4]. This suggests the market may be underpricing the chance of a warm anomaly, especially given the fragmented probability distribution seen in adjacent dates.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report issued for July 12, which will confirm the official KSFO high once the settlement window closes [6]. The primary catalyst is the Wunderground daily history update for KSFO, which resolves the market and is published shortly after midnight UTC on July 13 [3][9]. No weather model announcements are expected before settlement, but any sudden shift in marine layer coverage or wind patterns overnight could push temperatures above the 75°F threshold, a level that currently lacks explicit backing in the market despite historical plausibility [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.