Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s 10 August high is now a closed weather market, and the key read is that the crowd had already priced in a benign late-summer pattern rather than any heat spike. Weather services for the day pointed to a muted coastal setup — low clouds early, then sun — with forecast highs clustered in the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit, while the city’s August climate norm sits around 70–72°F at the airport station[3][9][15]. Weather Underground’s resolution rule matters here: the outcome is based on the highest reading in the Daily Observations table at San Francisco International Airport, not the broader “Day High & Low” summary, so traders should anchor on the station record rather than headline city figures[16].

That is why the 0% YES reading is better understood as a market that never found a credible path to an outlier hot day. In San Francisco, the marine layer and onshore Pacific flow often cap afternoon temperatures, and August highs commonly finish near the low 70s rather than the high 70s or 80s[1][14][15]. Comparable cases in the city’s historical record show that extreme August heat is possible, but uncommon: the all-time August maximum at San Francisco has reached 98°F, yet the climatological profile keeps most days much closer to the mean[10][12][15].

For traders, the only meaningful late catalyst is the final station observation and any backfill or correction to the Weather Underground daily table before the first datapoint for the following date is published, because revisions within the window can still change settlement[1][16]. The main dependency is therefore not a fresh forecast but the integrity and timing of the KSFO observation feed; once the next day’s first reading is posted, later adjustments stop mattering for resolution[1][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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