Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Qingdao’s July 9, 2026, high temperature hinges on whether coastal marine influence can suppress the day’s peak below 31°C, despite long-term averages pointing to 27–31°C daytime highs. Historical data shows daytime maximums in Qingdao during July typically reach 31°C, with 6–8 hours of daily sunshine and frequent rainfall averaging 152mm for the month[1][7]. A recent parallel market on July 2 resolved at exactly 31°C, suggesting the threshold is climatologically plausible but not guaranteed[2]. Lines.com analysts note that while July climatology supports a 31°C high, the coastal setting keeps the outcome genuinely contested, aligning with the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a higher range[3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on July 9, as real-time readings will determine resolution[3]. Key dependencies include sudden shifts in sea breeze intensity, cloud cover density, and any unforecasted rain events that could cap temperatures below 31°C. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast indicates daily highs ranging from 77°F to 89°F (25–32°C), with an average of 83°F (28°C), reinforcing the narrow margin between likely outcomes[4]. No major weather announcements are expected, but traders must watch for sudden marine layer developments that could override seasonal norms. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on July 9, 2026, leaving little time for late corrections[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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