Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or an expectation of data unavailability at settlement.

July temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget typically peak between 24–27°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The station's historical record for late July shows variability: the summer of 2022 saw extreme heat across France with Paris recording 40°C in mid-July, whilst cooler summers have produced highs around 22–24°C. The 0% crowd probability is anomalous given that any day produces a measurable high temperature; this suggests traders may be uncertain about data accessibility or market mechanics rather than doubting that a temperature will occur.

Monitoring European weather forecasts from mid-July 2026 onwards will be critical, particularly pressure systems developing over the Atlantic and any ridge of high pressure settling over continental Europe. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue extended outlooks 10–14 days in advance. Traders should verify Wunderground's historical data portal remains accessible through the settlement window, as the market depends entirely on this single source. Any disruption to the Paris-Le Bourget station's recording equipment or data transmission could affect settlement, though such outages are rare for major airport weather stations.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.