Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s highest temperature on 26 July will be set by the warmest reading recorded during the day, so the market is really about whether Paris manages a standard summer high or a sharp heat spike. The crowd’s 0% YES implies traders are not pricing an extreme outcome at this stage, but that is not a temperature forecast; it mainly shows that the current distribution is concentrated on ordinary July values rather than a breakout day. Paris July norms are around the mid-20s Celsius, with high variability and occasional days stretching into the low 30s or above when hot continental air builds over northern France.[2][3][6]

Historically, that matters because Paris can sit close to the borderline between comfortable summer weather and a genuine heatwave. July averages are typically about 25°C to 26°C for daytime highs, yet published ranges for the month run from roughly 20°C up to the low 40s, showing that one outlier weather pattern can dominate the day’s settlement value.[2][6] Recent coverage has also highlighted how quickly French heat can intensify and then ease once Atlantic air or thunderstorms arrive, with forecasters noting that high pressure can push Paris into the mid-to-high 30s before cooler air cuts temperatures back below 30°C.[4][5][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final overnight and morning forecasts, any Météo-France alert updates, and the timing of cloud cover, rain, or thunderstorms that could cap the station’s maximum. The market settles on the highest temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, so the exact station-level peak matters more than the citywide feel or the afternoon temperature in central Paris.[1] If the heat dome weakens earlier than expected, the ceiling on the day’s maximum falls quickly; if it persists through early afternoon, the market can still flip materially even late in the session.[4][5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.