Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, a date that historically falls within the city’s warmest month. July in Paris typically sees average highs of 27.0°C and lows of 16.4°C, with rainfall averaging 46.2mm spread over roughly five days [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range or believe extreme heat is unlikely, though mid-July has frequently produced temperatures exceeding 30°C in recent years.

Historical data shows that Paris has experienced several days in July with highs above 35°C, including a notable spike to 42.6°C in 2019, which frames the upper bound of plausible outcomes. Comparable cases from the last decade indicate that while 27°C is the average, deviations of ±5°C are common depending on regional airflows and urban heat retention. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026.

Key catalysts include sudden shifts in the Atlantic jet stream, which can bring cooler air, or persistent high-pressure systems that trap heat over the Île-de-France region. No major weather announcements have been issued yet, but forecast models from the French meteorological service (Météo-France) will be critical in the coming hours. Traders should watch for any updates on air quality alerts or heatwave warnings, as these often correlate with record-breaking temperatures in urban stations like Paris-Le Bourget.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.