Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s highest temperature on 5 August is the settling figure, and the current 0% YES price implies traders see almost no chance of an extreme outcome at or above the market’s currently bid band. That is consistent with the broader August baseline for Paris, where AccuWeather’s monthly guide shows highs mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit, which is roughly 24–27°C, while a Paris summer guide puts typical August highs around 25°C and lows near 16°C.[1][13]

Recent comparable readings point to a fairly tight cluster rather than a breakout day. A Paris forecast published for 3–9 August 2026 called for a dry, sunny Wednesday with around 29°C at the day’s high, after cooler mornings near 20°C.[17] By contrast, another August guide showed 5 August nearer 24°C with patchy rain possible, highlighting that Paris can still sit several degrees below the seasonal norm when cloud and showers limit daytime warming.[8] In that context, the market’s zeroed-out probability looks like a view that the station will land in a moderate summer range rather than challenge the upper bins.

Traders should watch the morning forecast updates and any changes to cloud cover, rainfall risk, or wind, because those factors matter most for the eventual daily maximum at Le Bourget. The main upside catalyst is a short-lived warm surge similar to the late-June heat episode that pushed France into record territory and briefly lifted Paris towards triple digits Fahrenheit, but the latest Paris-specific guidance does not point to anything of that magnitude for 5 August.[5][14][17] The key dependency is the official station reading captured by Wunderground at the airport, so late-day heating, timing of any showers, and any forecast revision after sunrise can still shift the final temperature band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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