Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s peak temperature for 4 August will be set by what happens at Paris-Le Bourget Airport before the settlement cut-off, so the market is really about the day’s maximum rather than the monthly average. For early August, the climate backdrop is usually warm: long-range sources put Paris’s August highs roughly in the mid-20s Celsius, with daily highs around 25–26°C and averages near 24–25°C, although some forecasts allow the day to run a little hotter.[1][2][11][13]

That makes 0% for YES look extreme against the seasonal baseline. Comparable August climatology shows Paris can exceed 30°C on warmer spells, with WeatherSpark noting that 4 August is typically among the warmest points of the year and that daily highs can rarely reach the high-20s or upper-80s Fahrenheit equivalents, while a separate Paris forecast for 4 August 2026 points to highs around 30–32°C after possible morning showers.[13][12] In other words, the market is priced as if a notably warm outcome is impossible, yet the historical and forecast context says a mid-to-high 20s reading is the more ordinary outcome and a 30°C-plus print is at least within the plausible range.[1][3][13]

The main trader catalysts are the short-range updates for Île-de-France, especially any revision to the expected morning showers and afternoon sunshine, because a clearer, sunnier evolution would support a higher peak, while cloud and rain would suppress it.[12][7] AccuWeather’s monthly outlook still shows a wide August range for Paris, with daily highs forecast between 71°F and 81°F, so late swings in the day’s forecast can matter even when the broader monthly profile looks stable.[1] Because the source is the airport station’s recorded maximum, not the city centre, any localised difference in cloud cover or convective rain near Le Bourget is the key dependency traders should watch.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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