Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 15 August 2026, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading from the Weather Underground Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle through to that point.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically cluster in the 24–28°C range for daily highs, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably elevated reading—likely above 30°C or into a higher-than-normal band. Comparable August dates over the past decade show that whilst heat waves do occur, they remain infrequent enough that extreme outlier temperatures command low baseline odds. The specific resolution methodology (Daily Observations rather than summary figures) introduces minor technical variance but typically aligns closely with standard reporting.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly any emerging Atlantic ridge patterns or continental high-pressure systems that could drive sustained heat into northern France during mid-August. Seasonal climate outlooks from Météo-France, published in June and July, will signal whether 2026 is tracking toward an anomalously warm summer. Any significant heat-wave warnings issued in the fortnight preceding 15 August would be the primary catalyst shifting implied probabilities, as would real-time forecast updates showing sustained 30°C+ conditions across the Île-de-France region.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.