Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is set to face a hot August afternoon, with market pricing clustered around the low-30s Celsius rather than an extreme spike. The crowd is currently assigning **0%** to a winning result in the exact range implied by the market title, but comparable August setups in Paris regularly clear 30°C, and the city’s historical record for 11 August shows a wide spread, including a **39.5°C** peak in 2003[4]. Broader Paris August climatology also supports a materially warm day, with typical highs in the mid-20s Celsius and recent forecast products pointing to values around **32°C** for the date[2][6][7].

What matters for traders is the sequence of intraday observations at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, not the headline daily summary, because the market resolves off the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table. That means a late-afternoon high, a brief convective surge, or any revised reading before the next day’s first datapoint can move the outcome band even if the day-high summary differs[1]. Recent forecast guidance has also varied from around **30°C** to the low **30s**, with AccuWeather showing an extreme-heat warning and a high near **91°F** for Paris on 11 August, while other services have clustered nearer **32°C–35°C**[2][6][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.