Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, a date that falls within New York’s historically warmest June period. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest range suggests the market expects temperatures to stay well below the upper thresholds, likely clustering around the average high of 88°F seen in recent years[1]. Historical data shows June 2026 is projected to finish as the eighth warmest June on record, with a mean temperature 2.4°F above normal, yet the 0% probability implies traders anticipate a significant cooling deviation or a failure to breach the specific high range in question[3]. Comparable cases from previous years indicate that while daily highs can reach 95°F, the average remains 88°F, making extreme outliers less frequent and potentially explaining the market’s conservative stance[1].

Traders should monitor immediate weather updates for the East Coast, particularly any sudden shifts in high-pressure systems that could suppress temperatures below expected norms. Recent forecasts from the Met Office highlight a potential for 37–38°C (99–100°F) in eastern areas, yet an amber heat warning for Saturday suggests volatility that might not align with the specific LaGuardia station data[6]. A key catalyst is the release of official Wunderground data for LaGuardia, which will resolve the market, and any discrepancies between Central Park and LaGuardia readings could significantly impact the outcome[5]. Additionally, the CBS New York forecast for a warm, humid Friday indicates that conditions on 26 June may be milder than the peak heat seen earlier in the week, a factor that could validate the 0% probability if temperatures drop below the threshold[8]. The market’s resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia, making station-specific microclimate variations a critical dependency for traders to watch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.