Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s highest temperature on 30 July sits in a very ordinary late-July range for New York City rather than in record-heat territory, which is why the market’s 0% yes price is best read as a strong expectation of a non-event rather than a view that the day cannot run warm. Forecast-style listings for the date put New York around the upper 80s Fahrenheit, with one showing an 88°F high and another around 30°C/86°F, both consistent with a summer day that could still produce a broad spread in the final airport observation depending on cloud cover, sea-breeze timing and any afternoon shower activity.[1][5][8]

The useful comparison point is the recent early-July heat wave, when New York pushed above 100°F and broader East Coast temperatures were unusually elevated, but that episode was driven by a different synoptic setup and does not automatically carry forward into the end of the month.[7][15] For this market, the main read-through is whether the day behaves like a hot but controlled summer afternoon, which would leave the LaGuardia maximum in the high 80s or low 90s, or whether short-lived convective heating briefly nudges the airport reading higher before cloud or rain intervenes.[3][4]

Traders should watch the final local forecast updates from the National Weather Service and airport-adjacent weather feeds on the morning of 30 July, because small changes in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing and onshore wind can move the eventual high by several degrees.[12][3] The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station on that calendar day, so intra-day extremes matter more than the daily mean, and any late-afternoon spike after a delayed sea breeze is more relevant than the overnight or early-morning profile.[12][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.