Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market turns on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 July, and the current crowd pricing points to a mid-80s outcome rather than an extreme heat spike. On Polymarket, **84-85°F** is the leading band at **41%**, with **82-83°F** close behind at **36%**, while the broader July climatology for New York City still centres on warm, but usually not exceptional, summer conditions. [1][3]

That pricing is consistent with a normal late-July setup, where the city often reaches the upper 20s Celsius and only occasionally pushes into the mid-30s Celsius in hotter spells. A published New York forecast for 26 July showed a sunny day with a maximum of **28°C** and a minimum of **19°C**, which would translate to the sort of low-to-mid-80s Fahrenheit result that dominates the book. [2][3]

For traders, the key catalysts are any late-day forecast revisions, especially changes in cloud cover, wind off the water, or a stronger-than-expected heat ridge that would lift the airport reading above the current favourite band. Official city heat warnings and cooling-centre activations can signal elevated temperature risk, but the final settlement depends on the *single highest* LaGuardia observation for that date, so even a brief afternoon peak matters more than the daily average. [4][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.