Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 21 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the peak reading across all hours of that day in Fahrenheit.

New York's July heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The city's all-time July record stands at 104°F, set in 1936, whilst typical July highs range between 82–86°F. Over the past decade, extreme heat days above 95°F have occurred roughly once per summer season, though clusters of consecutive days above 90°F are more common. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature bands or expect moderate conditions rather than exceptional heat on that particular date.

Traders should monitor Atlantic hurricane season activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns as July 2026 approaches. Tropical systems tracking northward can drive humidity and temperatures upward, whilst high-pressure systems stalling over the Northeast typically produce the most sustained heat. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, released monthly, will provide guidance on whether anomalous warmth is forecast for the Northeast corridor during mid-to-late July. Historical precedent shows that unexpected heat waves can shift market probabilities sharply once meteorological models converge on specific scenarios within 10–14 days of the settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.