Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak July temperature on 20 July 2026, with the day’s highest reading settling within a narrow band that the market now treats as virtually certain. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome outside the 82–83°F range reflects a near-total consensus that extreme heat or cold anomalies are off the table for this specific date.

Historical July highs at LaGuardia typically cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with 82–83°F appearing in roughly one in four recent years, making it a statistically robust anchor rather than an outlier. The current 100% allocation to this range aligns with the National Weather Service’s long-term averages for mid-July in the city, where temperatures rarely dip below 75°F or surge past 88°F without a confirmed heatwave signal [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the New York metro area, particularly any updates on the position of the Bermuda High, which often drives sustained warmth into the region. A sudden shift in the jet stream or an incoming coastal front could alter the thermal profile, though no such disruption is flagged in current models. For context, Wunderground’s historical archive for KLGA shows that 20 July has produced 82–83°F readings in 2019 and 2022, reinforcing the market’s confidence [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.