Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces its mid-July heat peak today, with the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport determining the outcome of a weather prediction market settling at noon tomorrow. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the event resolving as a specific outlier range, yet market data shows the frontrunner is 98–99°F at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 20%[1]. This distribution aligns with historical patterns where LaGuardia regularly hits high 90s in mid-July, suggesting the 0% figure reflects a mismatched binary framing rather than an actual absence of heat risk.

Traders should monitor real-time readings from the National Weather Service’s LaGuardia archive, which tracks daily maxima for this exact station[2]. The primary catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff tomorrow, meaning any temperature spike between now and then locks the result. With current forecasts indicating typical July warmth and no extreme cold fronts, the market’s 0% stance on the specific outcome appears inconsistent with the 41% probability assigned to the 98–99°F range, highlighting a potential pricing inefficiency for those betting on standard mid-summer highs.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.