Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City recorded a peak temperature of 91°F, placing the day firmly within the 92–93°F range that the prediction market currently frontruns at 90% probability, despite the confusing 0% YES crowd-implied figure for the binary outcome. Historical data shows that early July in NYC is consistently hot, with the all-time record for LaGuardia standing at 107°F on 3 July 1966, while recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, making temperatures below 90°F statistically rare for this period.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological reports for LaGuardia, which confirm the 91°F reading, and watch for any updates from Wunderground regarding heat index values that reached 99, as these dependencies could shift the resolution toward the 94–95°F bracket if minor data recalibrations occur. Recent extreme heat watches issued for New York, citing historic peaks of 105°F at LaGuardia, suggest that while 91°F is the current figure, the market remains sensitive to marginal fluctuations in the final settlement data, particularly given the narrow margin between the top two outcome ranges.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.