Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is tied to the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 August, not the summary high shown elsewhere on Weather Underground. By late afternoon on 9 August, the latest reported LaGuardia reading in WeatherSpark’s live historical feed was 88.0°F, with a six-hour high of 89.1°F, while a separate AccuWeather calendar projected New York City highs of 90°F for 9 August and 91°F for 10 August, showing how close the day was running to the upper end of the likely range.[1][3]

For context, the crowd’s 0% YES price is easiest to read against recent New York heat rather than against long-run averages. New York City has already seen a 100°F daily high earlier in July 2026, and LaGuardia’s own warm-season record landscape shows that mid-90s are possible there, but these are still exceptional outcomes rather than the base case.[7][11] That makes a sub-90 or near-90 LaGuardia finish far more plausible than a surge into the upper 90s, especially once the day is already in its late stages.

The key catalysts are the station’s final official observations and any later revision before Weather Underground closes out the day’s data for the settlement window. Polymarket’s market page states that revisions within the timeframe count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so traders should watch for the late-evening and post-midnight updates rather than the headline daily summary.[4][8] The National Weather Service’s local forecast and climate products are useful for cross-checking whether the broader New York City signal was consistent with the LaGuardia reading, but the settlement itself turns on the Daily Observations figure.[2][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.