Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station during 17 August 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are betting on a specific meteorological outcome nearly two years forward.

New York's August climate shows consistent patterns: the city averages a high of 27°C (81°F) in mid-August, with historical extremes reaching into the low 30s Celsius (mid-90s Fahrenheit). The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in an unusually cool day or treating the market as illiquid. August 17 carries no particular atmospheric significance that would distinguish it from surrounding dates; the real driver is whether a heat dome or Atlantic moisture pattern aligns with that specific calendar day in 2026.

Monitoring long-range climate forecasts from June and July 2026 will matter most, though their accuracy beyond ten days remains limited. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst a high-pressure system stalled over the Northeast would push readings sharply upward. Historical analogs from previous August 17ths at LaGuardia provide baseline reference points, though climate variability means any single day's outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—requires traders to understand Weather Underground's data hierarchy to avoid disputes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.