Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution. LaGuardia sits in Queens, exposed to Atlantic maritime influence, which moderates extremes compared to inland New York locations.

New York's August temperatures have shown consistent patterns over recent decades. The historical average high for mid-August at LaGuardia is approximately 82°F (28°C), with typical daily ranges between 75–88°F. Extreme heat days exceeding 95°F occur roughly once per August season, though such events remain minority outcomes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a temperature range below the lowest threshold offered, or that the market structure itself contains no viable option for typical August conditions—a common feature when range bins are poorly calibrated against seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast for late July and early August 2026, as atmospheric patterns 2–3 weeks prior often indicate whether high-pressure systems or frontal activity will dominate mid-month. El Niño or La Niña conditions, typically announced by NOAA in spring, influence seasonal temperature trajectories across the northeastern United States. The National Weather Service's monthly outlooks, published around the 8th of each preceding month, provide probabilistic guidance on whether August will trend warmer or cooler than normal—data that should inform position sizing before the settlement window opens.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.