Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. This date falls in the heart of New York's summer season, when afternoon highs typically range between 82–88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about whether the market will even settle.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variation. The airport's all-time August high stands at 102°F (recorded in 1933), whilst August averages hover around 79°F for daily highs. Over the past decade, mid-August highs have ranged from 73°F to 91°F, with heat waves producing readings above 90°F roughly once every two to three years. The current probability reflects scepticism about extreme heat on that specific date rather than any structural issue with the market itself.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in early August 2026, which will provide the first reliable indication of atmospheric patterns shaping that fortnight. Tropical systems tracking towards the Northeast, high-pressure systems stalling over the region, and jet-stream positioning will all influence whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than National Weather Service official records—introduces minor technical risk, though discrepancies between sources are typically negligible for daily highs.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.