Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station on 13 August 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section. This distinction matters operationally, as the two datasets occasionally diverge in their recorded peaks, with the former providing more granular hourly readings.

New York's August climate shows consistent patterns across recent decades. The city's average high temperature in mid-August sits around 82°F, with historical records indicating that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in roughly 30–40% of years during this period. The record high for any August day at LaGuardia stands at 99°F, set in 1933. Over the past decade, mid-August highs have ranged from 73°F to 94°F, suggesting the market's current 0% probability reflects either an extremely narrow temperature band or a technical calibration issue rather than a genuine weather forecast.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as August 2026 approaches, which typically becomes reliable 10–14 days out. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in early August will influence whether tropical moisture or continental heat dominates the Northeast. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 August, meaning morning forecasts from the NWS and Weather.com will be the final reliable signals before resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.