Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with data sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. New York's summer heat patterns show considerable variability in early August, with historical highs ranging from 79°F to 96°F across the past two decades on this specific date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about the exact resolution mechanics tied to LaGuardia's official station readings.

August in New York typically sits within the peak summer heat window, though early-month temperatures often remain below the seasonal extremes of late July and mid-August. The National Weather Service's 30-year climate data for this date shows a normal high around 82°F, with recorded extremes spanning from a low of 65°F in cooler years to highs exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The current market positioning at 0% suggests the crowd may be anchored to recent cooler-than-average August patterns or awaiting seasonal forecasts closer to the resolution date.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models released in late July 2026, particularly those tracking Atlantic high-pressure systems and tropical activity that could drive heat northward into the Northeast. The specific reliance on LaGuardia's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative NYC weather stations or summary data—creates a technical dependency worth verifying, as station maintenance or data reporting anomalies could affect final settlement. Historical precedent shows early August typically avoids the most extreme heat events, which may explain the cautious crowd positioning.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.