Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, Munich Airport is expected to record a daily high temperature that will determine the outcome of a prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of exceeding 25°C sitting at 0% for the YES outcome. This near-zero valuation reflects the immediate aftermath of a severe heatwave that peaked across Germany in late June, where Mannheim and Karlsruhe hit 39.2°C, before a sharp cooling trend began on 4 July[1]. By 6 July, cooler northern air had already lowered temperatures to around 28°C in most regions, with rain providing relief and the heatwave effectively ending by 7 July[1]. Current observations at Munich Airport show sunny intervals with a temperature of just 19°C at 08:00 BST, confirming the rapid shift to cooler conditions[2].

Historical data for Munich in July indicates daily highs typically range between 72°F and 75°F (22°C–24°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) or falling below 61°F (16°C)[5]. The current 0% probability aligns with this pattern, as the recent cooling trend suggests the airport will likely remain within the average range rather than spike into extreme heat. Traders should monitor any sudden shifts in weather forecasts, particularly announcements regarding incoming warm air masses from the south, which could disrupt the current cooling trajectory. While no specific injury or suspension news applies to weather, the dependency on Wunderground’s official daily high record means any data gaps or delays could impact settlement[3]. The thin volume and eleven competing outcomes in this market further suggest that traders should watch for volume spikes that might signal a change in sentiment before the noon resolution cutoff[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.