Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete pricing or an expectation of extreme cold unlikely for late summer in Bavaria.

August temperatures in Munich historically range between 18–27°C, with daily highs typically clustering in the mid-20s. The city's August average maximum sits around 24°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders are either awaiting updated forecasting data or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal pattern confirmation. Comparable August markets in European cities show similar early-stage uncertainty, with probabilities shifting materially once meteorological forecasts enter their reliable 10–14 day window.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern developments in early August 2026, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any high-pressure ridges establishing over central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts will become actionable reference points from mid-August onwards. Any significant heat advisory issued for Bavaria in the week preceding 20 August would likely trigger repricing across all temperature bands. Airport station readings can differ marginally from city-centre observations due to elevation and urban heat effects, making the specific resolution source material to settlement accuracy.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.