Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or an expectation of extreme heat unlikely to occur.

August temperatures in Munich historically peak between 24–28°C, with daily highs exceeding 30°C occurring roughly once every three to four years during heat waves. The city's August average high sits around 25°C. Since 1950, the absolute maximum recorded in August at Munich Airport reached 37.3°C in 2015, whilst readings above 35°C have occurred in only five Augusts across seven decades. The 0% crowd probability implies traders expect the temperature to fall outside all available ranges—an outcome requiring either a severe cold snap or a technical resolution issue, both uncommon in Munich's summer climate.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from late July through mid-August, particularly from the German Meteorological Institute (Deutscher Wetterdienst), which issues extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance. Any significant Atlantic low-pressure system tracking into central Europe during that period could suppress temperatures below seasonal norms. Conversely, a high-pressure ridge anchored over the continent—typical for August—would drive readings toward or above the historical median. The settlement window's precision requirement (Daily Observations table rather than summary figures) means traders must verify Weather Underground's specific data feed for Munich Airport, as discrepancies between reporting sources have historically caused disputes in weather markets.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.