Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport will record its highest temperature on 13 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently implies 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient trader engagement with this particular weather event.

August temperatures in Miami historically cluster in the 89–93°F range, with daily highs rarely exceeding 95°F even during peak summer heat. The National Weather Service records for Miami-Dade County show that temperatures above 96°F occur in fewer than 5% of August days across the past three decades. The 2024 and 2025 August records for the airport station provide the most relevant comparable data; reviewing those daily observation tables reveals typical patterns of afternoon thunderstorms moderating peak temperatures, a phenomenon that recurs reliably during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Atlantic hurricane forecast issued in early August 2026, as tropical systems or their remnants can substantially alter temperature patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream and Caribbean will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate the region—conditions that drive sustained heat—or whether convective activity and cloud cover suppress afternoon peaks. The National Weather Service's extended forecast issued 7–10 days before the settlement date will provide the most actionable signal for adjusting positions, though intraday variations remain inherently difficult to predict with precision.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.