Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, meaning afternoon readings after 12:00 UTC will not factor into resolution. August sits within Manila's monsoon season, when afternoon thunderstorms frequently develop and can suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation.

Historical August data from the airport station shows daily highs typically range between 30–34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that temperatures will remain within established seasonal norms rather than spiking into anomalous territory. Comparable August dates from the past five years have settled consistently in the 31–33°C band, establishing a baseline against which outlier scenarios should be assessed.

The primary variable affecting resolution is the timing and intensity of the southwest monsoon system affecting the Philippines in mid-August. Real-time weather forecasts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will provide the most granular guidance on whether convective activity or high-pressure systems dominate on the 17th. Traders should monitor PAGASA's 10-day outlook releases and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in the week preceding settlement, as these directly influence whether the station records typical seasonal temperatures or experiences anomalous heating.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.