Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s maximum at Barajas is likely to be set by a normal summer heat build-up rather than any one-off shock, and the market resolves on the *highest* reading logged during the day rather than the midday snapshot. That matters because Madrid regularly reaches the low-to-mid 30s Celsius in July, with average July highs around 33°C and daily maxima often sitting in that band[7][18].

Recent context points to a hot but not exceptional setup. AccuWeather’s Madrid forecast for 31 July shows a high near 92–96°F, while a Spanish outlet cited 38°C for the city on the same date, which would be enough to push the airport station into the upper 30s if verified on the day[1][4][6]. The broader historical frame is that Madrid’s standout extremes are far above normal, with the city’s recent benchmark highs around 40.7°C, but July day-to-day outcomes are usually well below that level[11][16].

For traders, the main catalysts are the live airport observations through the afternoon and whether the urban forecast is translated into an airport reading. Barajas can run a little differently from central Madrid, so the key dependency is the actual Wunderground station trace, not the city forecast alone. The market’s 0% implied YES makes the obvious risk a very hot afternoon still being priced as impossible, so any late surge towards the upper 30s would be the only meaningful path to a non-zero outcome[12][14][20].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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