Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s highest temperature on 9 August is being judged against a severe late-summer heat backdrop, with local forecasts pointing to the mid-to-high 30s Celsius rather than anything unusual for an August afternoon. Time and Date shows a sunny 98°F/68°F forecast for Madrid on 9 August, while AccuWeather’s August outlook also clusters the day around 98°F, and the market’s own description indicates a 37°C resolution band has been the main crowd view.[2][3][12]

For context, Madrid’s August climate normally supports hot daytime highs, with long-run averages around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and occasional spikes much higher than that. WMO’s city forecast shows 24°C to 36°C for 9 August, while climate summaries for Madrid note average August highs near 94°F and recorded extremes above 40°C, including airport readings well above the city centre’s Retiro station.[4][8][17] That matters because the settlement source is the Airport Station’s Daily Observations table, so the market should be read as a specific station reading rather than a citywide headline temperature.[1]

The key catalyst is whether the airport observation series prints a top hourly value in the 36°C–38°C area before the next day’s first datapoint is published; after that, revisions are excluded from settlement.[1] AEMET-backed coverage today described a hot, dry Sunday with skies clear and maxima around 36°C, while AccuWeather’s advisory flagged a maximum temperature of 38°C, both of which keep the upside concentrated but leave some room around the exact band that settles the market.[9][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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