Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices a 2% probability that the day's peak will exceed the upper threshold of the specified range, suggesting traders expect a relatively moderate August afternoon for the city.

August temperatures in Madrid historically peak in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, with the city's record high of 40.5°C set in July 2022. The 15th falls within the hottest fortnight of the year, though not consistently the absolute peak; analysis of the past two decades shows August 15 typically records highs between 34–37°C. Extreme heat events—those pushing above 38°C—occur roughly once every three to four years during mid-August, making the 2% probability for an exceptionally high reading plausible given the rarity of such conditions on this specific date.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from early August 2026, particularly high-pressure systems moving across the Iberian Peninsula. The North Atlantic Oscillation index and Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures in late July will signal whether anomalous heat is developing. Any forecast updates from AEMET (Spain's national meteorological agency) issued in the week preceding 15 August will provide the most actionable data; heatwave alerts or warnings would materially shift expectations. Cloud cover and wind patterns on the day itself remain unpredictable at this distance, though persistent anticyclonic conditions favour higher readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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