Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport’s highest temperature for 9 August has already been printed in the low 80s, and that matters because this market resolves off the Weather Underground daily observations for KLAX rather than any broader city summary. The NWS time series shows KLAX sitting around 79°F at midday on 9 August, while WeatherSpark’s historical feed for the same station also shows a recent 6-hour high near 80°F, suggesting the day’s peak was reached or was close to being reached well before the evening.[9][6]

The 0% crowd-implied probability on the wrong bin is easy to read against recent comparables: Los Angeles has been running hot, but the airport itself has been notably cooler than inland parts of the county. KTLA reported a new LAX record of 82°F during the recent August heat, which is comfortably above the market’s lower bins but still leaves the outcome dependent on the exact KLAX observation rather than a citywide reading.[13] The National Weather Service also noted widespread heat elsewhere in the region, with low 90s to above 100°F away from the coast, reinforcing the split between coastal airport conditions and inland extremes.[11]

For traders, the key catalyst is the final Weather Underground Daily Observations entry for KLAX and whether any post-publication revision appears before the first datapoint for 10 August. The NWS product showed the site updating into the evening on 9 August, so the practical risk is not a late surge in temperature but a small adjustment to the reported daily maximum or a data publication lag.[12][5] Because the market uses the airport station only, any heat headlines covering downtown, the valleys, or county-wide warnings move sentiment less than the specific KLAX daily high itself.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.