Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at London City Airport on 27 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market focused on heat extremes. Current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, yet Polymarket data shows 31°C as the frontrunner at 46%, with 32°C trailing at 37%, indicating a sharp divergence between the binary market’s pricing and the distributional view of likely temperatures[1]. Historical context frames this discrepancy: June 2026 has already seen record-breaking heat, with 34.8°C recorded in May and 33.9°C at Heathrow marking the hottest June day since 1976[7][9]. The Met Office forecasts a daily high of 31°C for London City Airport today, with a new June maximum possible, and daytime highs reaching 36°C under sunny conditions[3]. These comparable cases suggest that while the binary market may be overly conservative, the distributional market correctly anticipates a high probability of temperatures in the 31–32°C range.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and the Met Office, as weather dependencies can shift rapidly with cloud cover, wind patterns, or unexpected rainfall. BBC Weather reports light rain and a gentle breeze for London City Airport today, with a high of 27°C, contrasting sharply with the Met Office’s 31°C forecast[4]. This inconsistency highlights the need to watch official announcements, particularly if the Met Office revises its forecast or if Wunderground data diverges from current observations. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, so any late-morning weather shifts could alter the final recorded temperature. Recent news from BBC confirms that 33.5°C was recorded at Heathrow, reinforcing the possibility of extreme heat in the region[9]. Traders must assess whether the binary market’s 0% YES probability reflects genuine uncertainty or a mispricing relative to the distributional market’s 46% chance for 31°C[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.