Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at London City Airport on 26 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome above the lowest range. This implies traders expect conditions to remain well below extreme heat thresholds, despite the Met Office issuing a red warning for extreme heat across western areas and forecasting a maximum of 38°C for the day[2]. Historical June data shows London rarely exceeds 33°C, with Heathrow hitting 33.9°C in a recent record-breaking June day that was the hottest since 1976[7]. However, the current 0% probability suggests the market is anchored to typical early-June averages, where daily highs hover around 23–26°C, as seen in comparable years[3].

Traders must watch the Met Office’s hourly updates for the red heat warning’s actual impact, as the forecast of 38°C could shift probabilities if the warning materialises at the airport station[2]. The key catalyst is the Wunderground settlement data, which will confirm the highest temperature recorded at any time on 26 June, and any deviation from the 26°C forecast could trigger rapid price movement[3]. Recent news from the BBC confirms a red warning is active, with observed temperatures at 13°C early Friday but humidity at 88%, suggesting potential for rapid warming as breezier conditions develop[3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, so the final Wunderground reading will be the sole determinant, making real-time Met Office alerts critical for positioning[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.