Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport is set to record its highest temperature for 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 6% chance that the peak exceeds the implied threshold. July is the hottest month at this station, typically averaging a high of 22°C (72°F), though recent years have seen significant volatility with heatwaves pushing temperatures well above 30°C [2]. The current 6% YES probability aligns with historical outliers rather than the norm; while 35°C has been recorded in July during extreme events, such peaks are rare and usually tied to specific continental airflows [4]. The frontrunner outcome in the broader temperature range market is 27°C at 52%, suggesting traders expect a warm but not record-breaking day, with 26°C as the next most likely scenario at 25% [1].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily forecast updates for London, particularly any announcements regarding high-pressure systems drifting from southern Europe, which are the primary catalysts for extreme July heat in the UK. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s daily history for EGLC, so any gaps in station data or sensor recalibrations could delay resolution, though this is unlikely given the station’s robust infrastructure [1]. Recent news from the Met Office highlights that 2026 has already seen 35°C recorded in May, June, and July—the first time this triple has occurred in UK records—indicating a heightened baseline for heat extremes that could influence late-July spikes [4]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the final 12 hours of observation will be decisive, and any sudden shift in wind direction or cloud cover in the early morning could alter the peak temperature significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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