Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine this market's settlement. The resolution relies specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, with measurements taken in degrees Celsius. This distinction matters because discrepancies between observation-level data and rounded daily highs can shift outcomes, particularly during marginal conditions near range boundaries.

London's August temperatures have historically clustered between 20–28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C except during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a relatively cool day or that the specific range being tested sits above typical August conditions. August 2003 saw London reach 38.5°C during an exceptional European heat wave, but such events remain statistical outliers. Recent decades show August averages around 23–24°C, with daily highs typically in the mid-to-high 20s. Understanding this baseline helps calibrate whether the market's current pricing reflects genuine meteorological rarity or simply reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be recorded.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from the Met Office and European weather models as August 2026 approaches, though such predictions remain unreliable beyond two weeks. Atmospheric patterns in late July will provide clearer signals about whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather fronts will dominate the UK on that date. Any significant heat wave developing across Europe in early August could shift probabilities substantially, as such systems often extend northward into the British Isles within days.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.