Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur International Airport’s highest temperature on 10 August is being priced off a very warm late-monsoon climate regime, where daily highs around 30–31°C are normal in August and the long-run monthly average sits near 30°C. Weather Underground’s Kuala Lumpur history page shows a typical August high of about 91°F, while other climatology sources put the month’s average maximum close to 30°C, so a settlement band in the low-30s is the natural centre of gravity for this market.[4][5][8]

The 0% Yes line looks detached from both climate history and the live forecast picture. Malaysia’s Met Department is calling for no rain in Kuala Lumpur on 10/08/2026 and a maximum of 33°C, while timeanddate’s forecast is 89°F/78°F with isolated thunderstorms; that combination keeps the upside open but still favours a ceiling in the 33–34°C area rather than anything materially hotter.[9][18] Polymarket’s own book reflects that split, with 33°C leading at 52% and 34°C next at 44%, which is consistent with a market expecting heat but not an extreme spike.[10]

For traders, the main catalyst is the actual hourly progression at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport, because the market resolves from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low box. Any late-afternoon convection, sea-breeze suppression, or unexpected cloud build could clip the day’s peak by a degree, while a dry, bright midday run-up would favour the upper end of the forecast bands.[4][9][18] If the airport station briefly touches 34°C but the Daily Observations table records only 33.x°C as the day’s maximum, the lower band still wins under the stated rules.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.