Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s July 2026 heatwave has already cemented itself as the city’s second-warmest July on record, with an average daily temperature of 87.8°F, suggesting extreme thermal conditions are the norm rather than the outlier this month [1]. Historical data for mid-July at William P. Hobby Airport shows daily highs typically range between 85°F and 96°F, with the average high settling at 93°F [5]. The 1991–2020 normals indicate that temperatures exceeding 95°F are common, while the all-time July warmest average was 88.0°F in 2022, a year marked by persistent heat domes [6]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range is 0% YES, the market appears to be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat, as recent patterns strongly favour temperatures in the upper 90s rather than cooler outliers.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily heat advisories and the 12:00 UTC temperature update from Wunderground for the Hobby Airport station, which serves as the official resolution source [8]. A key catalyst is the persistence of the current heat dome over the Gulf Coast, which AccuWeather forecasts will maintain daily highs between 85°F and 96°F through mid-July [5]. Any sudden shift in wind patterns from the Gulf, which could bring cooler maritime air, would be the primary downside risk for high-temperature bets, though such shifts are historically rare in Houston during July. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, meaning the final reading will be captured before the market resolves, leaving little room for late-day volatility to alter the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.