Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s highest temperature on 9 August will be measured at William P. Hobby Airport, and the market settles on the maximum shown in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline day-high figure. The implied 0% YES price leaves virtually no room for an outcome in the upper ranges, even though Houston’s August climate normally supports sustained heat and high humidity rather than cool conditions. NWS climate normals for Hobby show a typical August maximum near 94°F, with a record high of 105°F for the date, so the event is usually decided by whether the day reaches the low-90s or pushes into the mid-90s, not by any extreme outlier.[11][15]

Recent guidance pointed to a standard summer heat setup rather than a major cool-down. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Houston showed daily highs mostly between 90°F and 97°F, while the NWS forecast for Houston/Hobby on 9 August called for a high of 92°F with a low of 79°F and only a slight chance of thunderstorms.[2][8] By late afternoon, observed conditions at Hobby were still near 91°F with a heat index around 102°F, which is consistent with a day that can remain elevated if clouds or showers do not cap the afternoon maximum.[7]

For traders, the key catalysts are the timing of the final temperature peak and whether convection develops early enough to limit heating. The market is highly sensitive to the exact sequence of hourly observations around local afternoon, because the resolving value comes from the highest reading captured in the station’s observation log, not a rounded summary. The main dependency is whether thunderstorms or thicker cloud cover arrive before the usual late-afternoon high, since that would keep the settlement temperature in a lower band; if the air mass stays mostly clear and humid, the upper-80s to low-90s become the likelier corridor.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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